India and China Explore Restoring Direct Flights: A Tentative Step Toward Thawing Relations?
Four years since the previous direct flight between China and India took to the skies, the two Asian behemoths are cautiously approaching the revival of air links. What was a pandemic-frozen break in 2020 had transformed into a sustained halt by being fuelled by geopolitical chill. Now that diplomatic back-channels buzzed discreetly with action, the question hangs in the balance: Is this purely utilitarian air transport policy, or may resumed flights serve as an early litmus test of improving ties?
The Long Grounding
As soon as COVID-19 initially coursed across borders in early 2020, India and China were among the first to close down air corridors. Originally presented as a short-term health measure, the suspension developed political undertones after the fatal Galwan Valley clashes in June 2020. Where previously 42 weekly flights linked cities such as Delhi, Mumbai, Shanghai, and Guangzhou, travelers were compelled onto grueling detours via Dubai, Singapore, or Hong Kong – frequently doubling travel time and expense.
The human cost has been severe. Some 23,000 Indian students in Chinese medical schools were left in the lurch, their professional lives hanging in bureaucratic suspended animation. Pharmaceutical traders and electronics traders bemoan declining profit margins from the cost of transshipment. “We’re masters at layovers,” jokes Ramesh Patel, an Ahmedabad-based industrial parts importer, “but our patience is as thin as the airplane grub.”
Behind the Scenes: Why Now?
Diplomatic sources indicate the flight negotiations picked up speed in May during backchannel talks, when officials sat in Beijing and discussed wider trade tensions. Neither government has officially recognized the breakthrough progress, but three aspects seem to be steering the discussions:
Economic Pragmatism
Two-way trade reached an all-time high of $136 billion in 2023, but the absence of direct flights compels companies to ship cargo through third-party nations. Industry associations put the increase at 12-15% in logistics costs for perishable items such as fresh vegetables and semiconductors due to time sensitivity.
Student Pressure
With China finally reopening student visas in late 2023, medical students have lobbied hard for flight resumption. “Our clinical rotations can’t be done over Zoom,” says Priya Menon, a fifth-year student in Tianjin.
Tourism Calculus
Before the pandemic, more than 300,000 Chinese tourists came to India each year (mainly for Buddhist circuits), and 1.5 million Indians visited China. Both countries’ aviation ministries covet this pent-up demand.
The Elephant and Dragon in the Room
Despite all these inducements, serious roadblocks continue to exist. The specter of persistent border tensions hangs heavy – India still limits visas for Chinese citizens in “sensitive” areas, while China still has a de facto ban on Indian journalists.
Aviation professionals also point to structural issues:
- Slot Squeeze: Major Chinese airports have converted erstwhile India slots to domestic routes during the break.
- Reciprocity Disputes: India will ask for reciprocal flight allocations, whereas Chinese carriers prefer a phased resumption.
- Tech Tensions: The Indian government continues to be suspicious of Chinese aviation technology, with slowdowns in approvals for aircraft components and software.
Industry Reactions: Cautious Optimism
An Air India senior official, who requested anonymity, said initial route reviews are targeting Delhi-Shanghai and Mumbai-Guangzhou. “The demand is there,” they said, “but we are monitoring fuel prices and geopolitical winds.” Chinese carriers such as China Eastern are reportedly making plans for service resumption, subject to political clearance.
In the meantime, travel aggregators are claiming a 170% rise in India-China route searches since the news of the negotiations broke. “It’s all speculation at this point,” warns MakeMyTrip’s Rajesh Magow, “but the search figures indicate how badly people desire this.”
What Next?
A great deal hinges on the political atmosphere. As Gautam Bambawale, India’s former ambassador to China, says: “Aviation has always been a bellwether in diplomacy. If flights resume smoothly, it could create momentum for broader dialogue.”
For now, passengers look on and wait – their boarding passes still missing that elusive direct stamp.
